My life, at least since high school, has been one long while(true) review. Reviewing might be seen as a data augmentation + self-supervised learning process; the side effect is it can make me more obsessive, but past experience has overall done more good than harm. The vast majority of my reviews are completely unfit for human eyes, but the stock-market ones can be displayed publicly, so let me write one up.
Micron and TurboQuant
My biggest move this stretch was buying Micron. The entry was on the high side — right in the days when TurboQuant just blew up (a KV Cache compression method accepted at ICLR, plus media hype about memory demand dropping). This one barely counts as my home turf. From the day it dropped, word kept trickling out that the thing was a reheated-leftovers paper. On 3.27, the RaBitQ author personally came down to Zhihu and hammered TurboQuant (Zhihu column). The paper isn’t just reheated leftovers — it involves academic misconduct and deliberately unfair comparison experiments (details in the column). And granting the absolute worst case: even if KV Cache could be compressed by a constant factor with some new method, iterating context lengths and model generations would instantly eat it all up. That only strengthened my value judgment on Micron — in other words, it’s trading at a super discount right now.
In hindsight my value judgment was extremely precise: after the TACO moment Micron snapped straight back, up nearly 20% in two days. But I didn’t make a single cent — I’m sitting exactly at break-even right now. There’s only one reason: I bought too early. Those two days it was at 370, and even after TurboQuant’s reputation had already rotted, Micron still dropped 10% in a single day. All in all, my trade was rational at the technical level, but that rationality only holds in a market of fully rational operators — and the market is not rational. Or rather, I overestimated how rational US stocks are. Factor in panic, and entry timing definitely has to lag. From now on, no more charging in with cash the moment the value case is done.
– Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong.
Outlook
Didn’t touch anything mentioned in the last post this cycle, though lately I’ve had the urge to bring my exposure down. I have a feeling Israel and Iran will stir up one more wave of volatility, but I’m not sure whether it’ll happen, nor whether I can catch it. US stocks are still valued on the high side — need to stay careful.
Stay tuned for more updates on my trading journey!
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