# Trading Review Pt.4 (26/05/11)

Source: https://brightonxu.com/posts/en/2026-05-11-trading-journey-pt4/

Author: Brighton (Yi Xu)
Published: 2026-05-11

I shall strike in full-position formation.

## Micron and Memory

The original plan was just to beat the Nasdaq for the year — by past-average backtests that might even let me feed myself independently. Instead, the opening move landed me a doubler. Part of it, credit to the tape: the Nasdaq just printed a one-month rally not seen in who knows how many years, actually allowing a company worth hundreds of billions of USD to double within a single month — genuinely never seen before; part of it is a repricing process in HBM and memory. Honestly, the repricing itself isn't jaw-dropping; the only dizzying thing is how fast all of it happened.

And yes, I basically rode the whole move from start to finish — I did rotate a chunk into a DRAM ETF midway and probably left about 10 points on the table because of it. No harm done.

## Other Moves

Every move right now is chasing strength — a bit risky, but I don't want to waste a market this good. Cut half my MSFT at a few points of loss; I can shout MSFT at least 600 all day long, but I honestly don't have that kind of patience anymore. Bought a tiny bit of TQQQ, a little AMZN, and a whole lot of INTC&GOOGL. TQQQ is a good thing. AMZN is basically the MSFT-alike dupe — the fundamentals might even look a bit better than MSFT's, and at least it won't get wrongly slaughtered as a software stock haha.

I chased INTC on Tuesday when the scuttlebutt broke about it making up with Apple — the entry wasn't bad. The main reason I passed on AMD is probably exactly one: fabless. I don't need a double-fabless position (NVDA); and of course I didn't buy TSMC either — the avoid-a-single-point-of-failure thinking is perfectly sound, though if TSMC really did get hit by a **monster card**, tech stocks might as well start digging their own grave. As of now, INTC's short term should look very pretty, especially when WST broke the official partnership intraday on Friday — one cloud-piercing arrow of a candle, a dead ringer for a meme coin. But I still deeply doubt the intrinsic quality of the American workforce — 18A yield issues and the like. Anyway, it's already being hyped as America's Huawei, and I happen to be in this game too, so for now I'll close my eyes and enjoy.

As for adding GOOGL — that's an ambush for the developer conference! I refuse to believe Gemini, with YouTube as its multimodal data source, can lose. And in the second half of the year, as SpaceX and Anthropic go public, GOOGL will pocket a nice chunk too. After this add, GOOGL and NVDA are nearly tied for the #1 position — though of course GOOGL's return rate got diluted into something rather ordinary.

## The INTC and TSMC Story

Here's the little essay I think best captures the current situation — obviously not written by me. Whether this is really the starting point of an era change is extremely doubtful, but TSMC definitely won't be basking in the spring breeze anymore:

> 唏嘘一下
>
> INTC 当年毛利 90%。觉得苹果 margin 低，且手机没品牌露出，是个垃圾生意，没谈拢。
>
> 这决定性事件的结果是，苹果找 TSMC，Intel 输了先进制成。Intel 没手机需求，就永远无法 justify 巨额 EUV 投入。最后甚至落魄到被 AMD 用 TSMC 先进制成压制。
>
> 直到 Pat 决心破釜沉舟，即使没客户，也要硬上，筑巢引凤，差点筑破产。
>
> 而这回轮到 TSMC 太傲慢了，一来没有意识到晶圆厂回美国是大国博弈国策，在温和的 Biden 窗口期 Fab 搬迁拖拖拉拉；二来成了最牛乙方：苹果给开发费用，但 TSMC 分配先进线程优先考虑自己"儿子" Jensen。
>
> Apple 终于决定敲打下这个把脚翘到桌子上的长工，顺便配合下美国战略。不但在 Intel 开发，还顺便把给 TSMC 的下一代研发费也分一部分给 Intel。
>
> 现在 Intel 成了那个听话的小工了，LBT 还乖乖请了 Trump 儿子当 FA。小 Trump 在欧洲路演自己基金到处吹嘘自己持仓 INTC。
>
> 一个时代如此开始，一个时代如此落幕。

*(Rough gist: Intel at 90% gross margin once dismissed Apple as a low-margin, no-brand-exposure garbage business and walked away — Apple went to TSMC, Intel lost the leading edge, and without phone demand could never justify its massive EUV bet, ending up suppressed by AMD on TSMC silicon — until Pat bet the whole company anyway, nearly bankrupting himself. Now the arrogance has rotated to TSMC: slow-walking the fab move to America and prioritizing its "son" Jensen for advanced nodes, so Apple decided to whip the hired hand lounging with its feet on the table — developing at Intel and splitting next-gen R&D fees with it. An era begins this way, and an era ends this way.)*

Mm, my private fund's performance has once again attracted a violent top-up from the family. Maybe it's time to consider asset allocation diversity.

**Stay tuned for more updates on my trading journey!**